Jeffrey Saltzman's Blog

Enhancing Organizational Performance

The Problem with Experts

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Now that the primary season is in full swing, this seem appropriate to repost.

Jeffrey Saltzman's Blog

Say you had a group of 100 people who put themselves forth as experts in estimating the number of gumballs in jars. Divide that group of 100 into 2 groups of 50, and asked each person within the two groups to estimate the number of gumballs in a jar. With one group of 50 treat their estimates individually, 50 individual estimates of how many gumballs are in the jar. With the second group take the 50 estimates and average them together, so you have only 1 estimate. All together you now have 51 estimates of the number of gumballs. Out of these 51 estimates, which will be closer to the actual number of gumballs, the 1 averaged estimate or one of the 50 individual estimates? The answer is that most often one of the 50 individual estimates will be closest and the average estimate will often consistently be the second…

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Written by Jeffrey M. Saltzman

February 2, 2016 at 6:42 am

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