Posts Tagged ‘Confidence’
10,000 Children
The Wall Street Journal in a series of articles wrote up a detailed account of how Bear Stearns imploded leaving JP Morgan and the Federal Reserve to patch together a solution. The series discussed how Bear’s CEO, Alan Schwartz, in meetings with his direct reports, called the precipitous decline in the value of the firms stock over a short period of time “a whole lot of noise”, a reference to a passing moment. Client after client were pulling their assets from the firm resulting in a modern day version of a run on the bank. The Wall Street Journal goes on to say that in a business such as Bear’s that rely on “Trust” and relationships that a decline in “Trust” could lead to the demise of the firm. But I don’t think that “Trust” or a decline in “Trust” really captures what went on. I think a more appropriate concept would be “Confidence” of which trust is a component. When Alan Schwartz was talking to his direct reports he was trying to calm their nerves and instill “Confidence”. They likely trusted him already as they had relationships with him and worked with him day-to-day, but what they seemed to lack (according to the article) was confidence that a course was being charted for the firm that would lead out of their current difficulties and to a successful outcome. The lack of confidence in Bear, by its customers resulted in a seminal and final moment for that storied institution and its 13,000+ employees.
Confidence as a broad concept is defined as “a state of being certain, either that a hypothesis or prediction is correct, or that a chosen course of action is the best or most effective given the circumstances. Confidence can be described as a subjective, emotional state of mind, but is also represented statistically as a confidence level within which one may be certain that a hypothesis will either be rejected or deemed plausible.”
Among the deaths counted in the earthquake that ravaged central China’s Sichuan province are an estimated 10,000 school children. This tragedy is still unfolding and is of course heartbreaking to watch. The parents of these school children are now taking on an unusual role for people within the communist state, that of protester. Many of them appear to be angry that the schools that serviced their children, from poorer backgrounds, collapsed in the earthquake to a much greater degree than schools that serviced wealthier families and other nearby government office buildings. There is speculation that corruption and official indifference caused the schools that collapsed to be built in a substandard fashion. The unstated assumption is that officials either did not care as much about poorer families or thought they could get away without imposing the same due diligence on the buildings constructed to service the poor. Due to that corruption and indifference parents have lost the one child they were allowed to have, they have lost their sense of future, they have lost their confidence that the government was at least minimally looking after their interests. Parents are often willing to put up with much hardship and suffering if they feel that they are working towards a better future for their children. The parent protests are increasing and a riveting picture appearing in the New York Times and flashing around the internet shows a local official on his knees pleading with the parents to discontinue their march and allow the local party to investigate why so many school buildings collapsed. Parents ignored his pleas and continued their march. One public official associated with the schools was quoted as saying that each family would be compensated $4500, several years’ worth of wages for each child that died. I don’t think the parents are looking for money. Some statements from the parents were quoted in the New York Times. “We don’t want their money. We just want this corruption to end.” “We demand that the government severely punish the killers who caused the collapse of the school building,” “The people responsible for this should be brought here and have a bullet put in their head.” “Why can’t you do the right things for us? Why do you cheat us?” The lack of confidence of the parents that the system is looking after their interests and their children in a fair and just manner may be creating a seminal moment for China. But 10,000 children is a very high price to pay for societal change. And when society decides that the price it has paid for the continuation of the status quo is too high it will change.
On Saturday, March 25th, 1911, on the top 3 floors of the ten story Asch building located at 23-29 Washington Place, on the lower east side of Manhattan a fire broke out. The incident became known as the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire and resulted in the deaths of 148 of the 500 workers in the factory, who either burned or jumped to their deaths. This was and continued to be the worst industrial accident in NYC until 911 occurred. One exit stairway had been chained shut, the flimsy fire escape soon collapsed as people struggled to flee, the elevator stopped working and the remaining staircase was inadequate for the number of people in the building. The workers were mostly young immigrants, some only 15 years old who toiled for 14 hour shifts, 60-72 hours per week. The average weekly wage was between $6 and $7. After the fire the owners were put on trial and were acquitted but then lost a civil suit which compensated the average family $75 for each killed worker or about 11 weeks worth of wages. I don’t think those parents, survivors or relatives were looking for money either. They had lost confidence in the current system, organized themselves and the outrage that followed the deaths caused new and enhanced safety requirements for buildings to be enacted and also resulted in the slow improvement of working conditions for factory workers throughout the USA. “The people demanded restitution, justice, and action that would safeguard the vulnerable and the oppressed. Outraged cries calling for action to improve the unsafe conditions in workshops could be heard from every quarter, from the mainstream conservative to the progressive and union press” (Cornell University Archives). It was a seminal moment, but 148 lives was a very high price to pay for societal change.
Confidence, it is critical to our everyday lives. Without confidence not only would many of our institutions collapse, but our society overall would cease to function. Whether you deposit money into a bank is determined by your confidence that the money will be there when you need it, that the bank will not disappear, squander or lose your money. Whether you go to a hospital when you are sick is driven by the confidence you have that going to the hospital would in fact help heal you. Interest in our national elections, the percentage of voter turnout, is clearly dependent on whether voters are confident that their vote is meaningful. Whether you stay with your current employer or seek employment elsewhere is driven by your confidence that you will benefit by staying put or benefit more by going elsewhere. Whether you go to college or not is driven by your confidence that going to college will result in positive outcomes for you personally. The value of our money, our paper currency, is dependent on the confidence that people have that the government has the means to stand behind the currency. When you buy or use a product from a company you need to have confidence that the product will work as advertised or you would not buy it in the first place. The list could go on and on.
Confidence© could be thought of as having two very broad components, Organizational Confidence© and Personal Confidence©. Organizational Confidence is confidence in the various organizations or institutions that we interact with and Personal Confidence is confidence in our selves, of our future or abilities and each of these dimensions has an internal and an external component.
| Confidence | Organizational | Personal |
| Internal | ||
| External |
Each cell in the confidence table above could be defined based upon the overall concept being assessed. For instance if we take Employee Confidence© as the concept to be assessed, Organizational Confidence-Internal would cover the quality of the management team and the business processes that are in place. Organizational Confidence-External would cover the positioning of the organization in its markets and the robustness of the industry that the organization operates. Personal Confidence-Internal would cover job security and how bright the future appears for you at your current employer and Personal Confidence-External covers your ability to find another comparable job to the one you have.
Consumer confidence measured and tracked religiously could be thought of within this framework as well, as could Military confidence, Political confidence, Educational confidence, Health confidence etc. Confidence becomes an over-riding rubric allowing for various slices of confidence, differing types of confidence to be defined and measured. Each type of confidence may likely predict to varying societal outcomes or organizational performance depending on how it is defined and measured.
© 2010 by OrgVitality, Jeffrey M. Saltzman. All rights reserved.
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Confidence Too
How do you think you would be received if you embarrassed people in power either political or religious power, not by claiming more or perhaps better knowledge, but simply by asking logical questions that pointed out inconsistencies and inadequacies in their decision-making, showing that the rationale for the various beliefs that they held dear was full of holes? What if you were so confident that your questioning approach was a method that could be utilized to uncover the truth and create a path toward greater understanding, and perhaps better decision-making, that you incessantly applied it every day until you had a both a following and a significant group of detractors? If you were Socrates, causing that embarrassment would lead to the death penalty on charges of corrupting the youth of Athens and disbelieving in the ancestral gods. He was so confident in his approach, now called the Socratic Method that he was willing to die for his beliefs.
Where did that level of confidence come from? How could he be so sure he was right? In essence he did not believe he was right about the content of anything, about his knowledge, what he stated he had was “an open awareness of his own ignorance”, a belief that he felt that those in power did not possess. What he believed in was his method, his approach that if followed would lead to greater insights, and that ordinary people could be taught to question traditional notions and by doing so would be leading a more fulfilling life. Heresy! His belief in his questioning approach was so strong that during his trial he is reported by Plato to have said, “The unexamined life is not worth living”, as he rejected offering up exile or silencing as alternatives to the death penalty to be imposed by drinking Hemlock. How many scientists do you know today who would be willing to die for the right to conduct experiments, or follow a line of inquiry in order to do hypothesis testing?
It is speculated by some scholars that the charges were brought against Socrates because of a sense of pessimism that had engulfed democratic Athens after their devastating loss in the Peloponnesian War to the oligarchic Spartans, a loss of confidence in their political system, and the hunt for a potential scapegoat. You can almost hear the maneuvering, the rationales being offered as to why Athens lost to its rival. “It is that trouble maker Socrates, always questioning, tearing us down, trying to destroy our way of life, never following our lead. He has corrupted our youth by sowing doubt and has brought down the wrath of our gods by questioning their legitimacy. Death to Socrates!” It is easier of course to look back at the ancient past and to state that their behavior appears silly, for we would never act that way today, tearing down those that question our beliefs, would we?
What is confidence? How is confidence acquired? Why are we confident? What are the consequences of a loss of confidence? From a scientific standpoint, confidence can be described as being certain that a hypothesis is correct, and through research numbers can be ascribed to your findings which are interpreted or hedged using a confidence interval (99% or 95% confidence intervals being generally accepted standards), but it is also a psychological construct that is generated by and in what the individual believes to be true, personal hypotheses, if you will. An accountant might say, “I have absolute confidence in my facts and figures and I will stand behind them 100%.” I can also have confidence in my political leadership, my religious beliefs, my doctor, family members, my mailman, my lawyer (well, maybe not). But confidence regarding individuals or institutions and in what you believe to be true about them is often limited to certain very specific circumstances. I have confidence that my mailman will deliver my mail, he has a very good track record over the years, and I know he has the US Post Office standing behind him to support him in his efforts. And while I have that confidence in my mailman, I will not have confidence in him to interpret my EKG results. That piece of confidence I will reserve to my doctor, who I have confidence in because of her track record as my doctor (she once saved my life when I had pneumonia), experience, training, and because of the hospital she works at, which gives her legitimacy because I am going to assume would not let her practice there unless she was competent. In both of these cases I have confidence in these people, in specific circumstances because of their own personal characteristics and because of the organizations with which are somehow affiliated, either through training, experience, or employment.
Confidence is very commonly used and fairly widespread. There are formal on-going efforts to measure Investor Confidence, Consumer Confidence, Purchasing Managers Confidence, and CEO Confidence. There are numerous self-help courses aimed at improving your self-confidence in a wide variety of situations, there is the statistical use of confidence intervals and confidence limits, politically some governments face no confidence votes, and on the dark side of the law there are criminals called Confidence Men. Our current economic situation has been called by some a Crisis of Confidence and some founding fathers somewhere thought it was a good idea for the future of their towns to name them Confidence including, Confidence, Iowa, Confidence, California, and Confidence, West Virginia.